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Report of the First Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program to NOAA and the NSF

NOAA and the NSF have jointly commissioned science planning activities under the interagency US. Weather Research Program Office at Silver Spring, Maryland, and the Office of the Lead Scientist at NCAR. The lead scientist charged the authors of this report to take a first step in program definition by recommending scientific directions mainly from a fundamental and theoretical perspective. Spirited discussions ranging from advanced concepts to predictability to practical problems in operational forecasting led to the publication of this report. This is the first in a series of reports to the community that, in aggregate, will serve to shape the program.

Concerns are expressed about knowledge pertaining to the economic value of weather information and the costs and benefits associated with potential improvements in observing systems and forecasting techniques. Ten recommendations are made concerning various data infrastructure issues. These address a determination of an optimal mix of observing systems, use of programmable observing systems. land surface properties and processes,improved water vapor measurements, improved measurements in clouds, aircraft measurements in aid of hurricane forecasting. Improved measurements of the upper ocean, global rawinsonde coverage, specialized research observing systems. optimal use of existing and emerging operational data sources, open operational data, and improved data access.

Seventeen emerging basic research opportunities are identified. These include fundamental physics of land-air interaction. adaptive observing strategies, dynamical influences of cloud microphysical processes. seasonal and longer timescale variations, the fundamental role of the tropopause in extra tropical dynamics, tropical cyclone genesis and intensity change, dynamics of landfalling tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective system, dynamics and physics, coupling of atmospheric boundary layers with deep convection, convective ensemble dynamics, orographic and other influences on sources of potential vorticity, orography, influences on airflow and precipitation, interaction of balanced and unbalanced circulation systems, mesoscale frontal cyclones, application of models to forecasting, fire weather, ensemble forecasting and data assimilation techniques, and advanced model output statistical techniques.

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Emanuel, K., D. Raymond, A. Betts, L. Bosart, C. Bretherton, K. Droegemeier, B. Farrell, J.M. Fritsch, R. Houze, M. LeMone, D. Lilly, R. Rotunno, M. Shapiro, R. Smith, and A. Thorpe, 1995: Report of the First Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program to NOAA and the NSF. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 1194-1208.